I’m going to hand out another podcast shout out to the Rise and Shout podcast. They frequently do over/under stats for BYU and I thought I’d come up with some of my own for the AI family and see what we could come up with. Check back this whole week for the next in depth look into BYU football.
Taysom Hill is taking over in 2013 as the bold new leader of a team that has needed a leader that could rally the team AND play football for some time. Will Hill be that guy? I looked at the top 10 quarterback seasons of all-time according to Adam Mangum at Vanquish the Foe. I found some consistencies among this elite brotherhood that includes such heroic names as Ty Detmer, Steve, Young, Steve Sarkisian, and Jim McMahon. With all the hype coming out of Provo (hey, BYU fans are, if nothing else, masters of creating blue-goggle hype when nothing else is happening) I thought I’d see what it might take to get Taysom Hill into Adam’s top 10 this season. These numbers are the average of Adam’s top ten list.
Passing: 4100 total yards, 66% completion rate, 34.5 TD, 14.5 INT, 9 yards/completion
Rushing: 37.5 yards/game, 8 total TD
Carl: Taysom is going to have a decent year on paper. Expect Anae and Co. to get Taysom started much like Max Hall back in the day. The offense will be conservative to start, but expect Hill to graduate on to a bigger playbook. Generally, I’m putting a conservative ‘under’ value on most of the stats in question, mainly due to the strength of schedule. I like Taysom in a leadership, move-the-chains kind of role; doing whatever he can to get a fresh set of downs and keep the offense on the field. He won’t need to be flashy to make the offense move.
Passing: 4100 yards = under 66% rate = over 34.5 TD = under 14.5 INT = under 9yds= Over
Rushing: 37.5 YPG = over 8 TD = over
Matt: I’m taking the under on all the passing stats and pushing on the rushing stats and here is why. If Hill had already had one full season under his belt as the starter or he wasn’t facing the level of talented opponents that he will be facing, I might be a bit more bullish on his potential in 2013, but as it is, the universe has conspired against him. We’ll see games where he will play at a pace that would allow him to reach these numbers, but there will be others, especially early, that will show us that he is still learning. I’m not saying he won’t have a great season; I just don’t think it makes Adam’s top ten list of all time. 2014 might be when we visit these numbers though.
Mike: I’m going under on every one of these. The passing stats would put Taysom as one of the leading passers last year. I love the guy but as a sophomore there’s no way. As for the interceptions, I’m hopeful Anae won’t be throwing Taysom enough to get picked 15 times. Riley Nelson in one of the worst passing seasons in BYU history only threw 13 INTs. I think the rushing yards are close but I don’t see Taysom running as often as Doman ran him last year.
Since Taysom Hill is my very first man-crush, I’m going to have to make a concerted effort to remove my bias from this. Taysom Hill is an exciting athlete to have at BYU … but he’s a sophomore. We don’t know how good of a passer he is yet, and it would be very difficult to go from having questions about his passing ability to him having a better season than either John Beck or Max Hall ever had at BYU. Plus, we don’t exactly know what Robert Anae’s offense will consist of. However, I do feel like there will be a running QB component, so while I am saying UNDER on his passing stats, I’m giving the OVER on his rushing stats.